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US 10-Year Treasury Yield

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

About the US 10-Year Treasury Yield

The US 10-Year Treasury yield is arguably the single most important interest rate in global finance. It represents the return an investor earns by lending money to the US government for ten years, and it serves as the benchmark against which virtually all other borrowing costs are measured, including mortgage rates, corporate bond yields, and sovereign debt pricing worldwide. The 10-year yield is determined by supply and demand in the Treasury market, the deepest and most liquid bond market in the world with over $25 trillion in outstanding debt. Because US Treasuries are considered the global “risk-free” asset, the 10-year yield functions as a foundational building block for asset valuation models across every financial market, from equities and real estate to foreign exchange and commodities.

US 2-Year Treasury Yield

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

About the US 2-Year Treasury Yield

The US 2-Year Treasury yield is the most important short-duration benchmark in fixed income markets and the closest market-based proxy for Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. While the 10-year yield captures longer-term growth and inflation expectations, the 2-year yield is almost entirely driven by anticipated Fed policy over the near term. It is often described as the “Fed expectations yield” because it moves in near-lockstep with changes in the expected federal funds rate trajectory. The 2-year yield is also a critical component of the Treasury yield curve, and its relationship with the 10-year yield (the “2s10s spread”) is one of the most watched recession indicators in all of finance. An inverted yield curve, where the 2-year yield exceeds the 10-year, has historically preceded every US recession.