The US inflation print
The calendar’s heaviest event lands at 12:30 UTC, when the United States releases its full consumer price report β the highest-impact release of the next 24 hours for the dollar.
Four readings drop at once. Headline CPI, which tracks the change in prices consumers pay for goods and services, is forecast at 0.6% m/m against 0.4% previously, with the annual rate seen at 3.6% versus 3.4%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is pencilled in at 0.2% m/m from 0.3%, and 2.5% y/y from 2.4%. All four are high-impact for USD, and they print simultaneously.
Ahead of the print
Three medium-impact events run through European hours first. BOC Governor Macklem speaks at 06:05 UTC, a CAD event with no forecast published. ECB President Lagarde follows at 08:30 UTC, watched for EUR. The EU Economic Summit then opens at 10:15 UTC, also a euro-area event. None carry forecast numbers; markets read them for tone rather than data.
The overnight session
Attention turns to Australia at 00:30 UTC on 15 October. Employment Change, the net change in the number of people employed, is forecast at 19.6K β roughly half the prior 39.5K. The Unemployment Rate, the share of the labour force out of work and seeking it, is seen at 4.6%, unchanged from 4.6%. Both are high-impact for AUD. SNB Chairman Schlegel then speaks at 04:30 UTC, a medium-impact event for CHF with no forecast attached.
What to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the session’s anchor; Australian jobs at 00:30 UTC are the next high-impact test once Asia reopens.
