Canada’s inflation report dominates the next 24 hours, with the entire calendar landing in a single 12:30 UTC release. Four separate CPI measures print at once, three of them flagged high-impact, which puts the Canadian dollar at the center of the session’s event risk.
Headline CPI β 12:30 UTC
Consumer Price Index m/m is the headline reading, tracking the month-over-month change in prices paid by Canadian consumers. The forecast is 0.2%, against a previous -0.1% β the prior month recorded a small outright fall in prices, and consensus looks for a return to modest monthly gains. It is a high-impact release for CAD, and the only event on the slate where the forecast differs from the previous reading.
The Bank of Canada core trio β 12:30 UTC
Three central-bank core measures land at the same moment. Each strips out volatile components to gauge underlying inflation, and together they are the Bank of Canada’s preferred lens on price pressures.
Median CPI y/y, high-impact, carries a 2.0% forecast against a 2.0% previous β consensus sees no change, holding at the midpoint of the Bank’s target band.
Trimmed CPI y/y, also high-impact, is forecast at 1.9%, matching the previous 1.9%. No change is expected year-on-year.
Common CPI y/y, the medium-impact measure of the three, is forecast at 2.6% versus a 2.6% previous β steady, and the firmest of the core trio.
What to watch
Every event on the next 24-hour calendar is Canadian and clustered at 12:30 UTC, so CAD carries the session’s scheduled risk alone. The headline m/m print (0.2% forecast vs -0.1% previous) is the lone reading with a gap to its prior figure; the three core y/y measures are all pegged to repeat β 2.0%, 1.9% and 2.6% respectively.
