The 12:30 UTC data dump is the day’s centerpiece, with US non-farm payrolls arriving alongside Canadian jobs and a batch of US wage and unemployment figures. A BOE speaker opens the morning.
United States
Non-Farm Employment Change (12:30 UTC) is the marquee release. The forecast calls for 55K, a swing from the previous -23K contraction. The number tracks the change in employed people, excluding farm workers, and it carries the most weight for USD in the calendar.
Alongside it at 12:30 UTC, the Unemployment Rate is seen holding at 4.1%, unchanged from the prior 4.1% reading.
Average Hourly Earnings m/m, also at 12:30 UTC, is forecast at 0.3% versus 0.1% previously. It measures the monthly change in wages paid to workers and feeds the inflation side of the labour picture, another USD input.
Canada
Canada reports at the same 12:30 UTC slot, setting up a simultaneous read on the two North American labour markets.
Employment Change is forecast at 15.1K, a sharp step down from the previous 75.1K. The figure counts the net change in employed people over the month and is high-impact for CAD.
The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 6.4%, matching the prior 6.4%.
Later, at 14:00 UTC, the medium-impact Ivey PMI is forecast at 56.2 versus 55.1 previously. The index surveys purchasing managers on activity levels, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.
United Kingdom
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (08:50 UTC) opens the high-impact schedule. There is no forecast or previous figure attached; remarks from the Bank of England governor are watched for tone on the policy path and matter for GBP.
The overlap at 12:30 UTC β US payrolls, wages and unemployment against Canada’s employment and jobless rate β is the session’s clear focal point.
