What to Watch: US ISM Manufacturing and an RBNZ Rate Decision

The next 24 hours stack up high-impact prints across three continents, headlined by US ISM manufacturing and a New Zealand rate decision.

Europe and the US

The session opens at 09:00 UTC with the euro area flash CPI estimates. Headline CPI y/y is forecast at 3.3%, up from 2.9% previously, while core CPI y/y is seen holding at 2.5%, matching the prior reading. Both are medium impact for the EUR.

At 14:00 UTC the US calendar lands in a cluster. The high-impact ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 55.2, a slight cooling from 55.6 prior — the reading gauges factory-sector activity, with above-50 signalling expansion.

Alongside it, ISM Manufacturing Prices is forecast at 70.5 versus 71.1 previously, a medium-impact input-cost gauge. JOLTS Job Openings, also medium impact, is seen at 7.33M against 7.36M prior, a read on labour demand. All three matter for the USD.

Asia-Pacific

Overnight the focus shifts down under. Australian GDP q/q prints at 01:30 UTC, forecast at 0.3%, matching the previous quarter’s 0.3%. It is a high-impact release for the AUD and the broadest single measure of the economy’s growth pace.

Half an hour later, at 02:00 UTC, the RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision is the standout for the NZD. Markets look for a move to 2.75% from 2.50%, a 25 basis-point step. The accompanying Monetary Policy Statement and Rate Statement land at the same time, carrying the central bank’s economic assessment and guidance.

The RBNZ Press Conference follows at 03:00 UTC, where the governor takes questions — another high-impact event for the NZD, as tone can shift beyond the rate call itself.

What to watch

The US ISM cluster at 14:00 UTC is the day’s densest window for the dollar, pairing the growth signal with prices and openings data. The RBNZ block from 02:00 UTC is the clearest scheduled risk for the New Zealand dollar, with the rate decision, statements, and press conference all in play.