US inflation is the centerpiece of the next 24 hours, landing at 12:30 UTC. But the session opens earlier with UK growth data and runs through a string of central bank speakers.
The main event: US CPI (12:30 UTC)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the full inflation set at once, all high impact for the USD.
Headline CPI m/m is seen at 0.4%, a jump from the prior 0.1%. CPI y/y is forecast to hold at 3.4%, matching the previous reading.
The core measures, which strip out food and energy, tell a softer story. Core CPI m/m is expected to steady at 0.2%, unchanged from last month, while Core CPI y/y is seen easing to 2.4% from 2.5%.
The split β a firmer headline against cooling core β makes this a closely parsed print for the dollar.
UK GDP kicks off the day (06:00 UTC)
Before the US numbers, the UK reports monthly GDP at 06:00 UTC, a high-impact release for the GBP.
Growth is forecast to stall at 0.0%, down from 0.3% the month prior β a notable step lower in the pace of activity.
Central bank voices
SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks at 09:15 UTC, a medium-impact event for the CHF with no forecast attached.
Later, ECB President Lagarde takes the podium at 14:00 UTC. It’s a medium-impact appearance for the EUR, watched for any tone on the policy path.
US sentiment rounds out the day (14:00 UTC)
Alongside Lagarde, the University of Michigan releases its preliminary consumer surveys, both medium impact for the USD.
UoM Consumer Sentiment is forecast at 51.0, matching the previous reading and holding at a subdued level. The accompanying UoM Inflation Expectations gauge had a prior print of 4.3%, with no forecast published.
What to watch
The 12:30 UTC US CPI block is the session’s clear focal point for the dollar, with UK GDP setting the tone six hours earlier for sterling.
