The Federal Reserve dominates the next 24 hours, but the calendar opens well before and runs long after. Four separate currencies see high- or medium-impact data.
United States: the Fed in Focus
The headline event lands at 18:00 UTC with the Federal Funds Rate decision. Markets expect a move to 4.00%, up from the previous 3.75%. The rate carries directly into USD across the board.
Alongside it at 18:00 UTC come the FOMC Economic Projections and the FOMC Statement, both high-impact and both released without a numeric forecast. The projections update the committee’s view on growth, inflation and the rate path.
The FOMC Press Conference follows at 18:30 UTC, where the tone and detail behind the decision often move the dollar more than the rate itself.
Ahead of that, US data arrives at 12:30 UTC. Retail Sales m/m is forecast at 0.8%, a sharp swing from the previous -0.6%. Core Retail Sales m/m, which strips out autos, is seen at 0.6% against a prior -0.3%. Both are medium-impact and both bear on USD.
United Kingdom: CPI Opens the Day
The session’s first mover is UK CPI y/y at 06:00 UTC. The forecast is 3.1%, an acceleration from the previous 2.9%. This high-impact inflation print matters directly for GBP.
New Zealand: GDP Closes It Out
At 22:45 UTC the calendar rounds off with New Zealand GDP q/q, forecast at 0.1% β a steep deceleration from the previous 0.8%. The high-impact release is the key growth read for NZD.
The FOMC block at 18:00 and 18:30 UTC is the clear centre of gravity, with the UK CPI print setting the tone at the open and New Zealand GDP the last item on the docket.
