The next 24 hours build toward one high-impact release: Australia’s CPI at 01:30 UTC on 30 September, three inflation gauges landing together and the clearest catalyst for the Australian dollar on the schedule. Everything ahead of it is medium-impact, spread across the European and North American sessions.

European session

11:00 UTC β€” ECB President Lagarde speaks (EUR). A scheduled address carries no forecast or previous figure, so the euro takes its cue from tone rather than a number. Remarks touching the inflation path or the policy stance are the parts that reach the currency. Medium impact.

North American session

12:30 UTC β€” Canada GDP m/m (CAD). The monthly reading on the value of goods and services produced across the economy. The forecast is 0.0%, a stall against the prior 0.3% expansion, making it the session’s main data point for the loonie.

14:00 UTC β€” US CB Consumer Confidence (USD). The Conference Board’s gauge of how households view current and future conditions. Consensus sits at 89.2 versus 89.4 previously β€” essentially flat, pointing to a steady read on sentiment.

14:00 UTC β€” US JOLTS Job Openings (USD). Total unfilled positions on the last business day of the month, a measure of labour demand. Openings are seen at 7.23M against 7.27M prior, a marginal easing. Both US prints hit the same minute, so the dollar reads them as a pair.

Australian CPI overnight

The main event. At 01:30 UTC three inflation measures publish at once, all high-impact and all bearing on the Australian dollar:

  • CPI m/m: forecast 0.5%, down from 1.0% β€” a sharp slowing in the monthly headline pace.
  • CPI y/y: forecast 4.1%, up from 3.5% β€” the annual rate seen accelerating.
  • Trimmed Mean CPI m/m: forecast 0.3%, down from 0.5% β€” the core gauge the RBA tracks most closely.

The split is what makes this print stand out: a cooler monthly headline sitting alongside a hotter annual rate, with the trimmed mean easing to 0.3%. All three arrive in the same release, so the AUD reaction rests on how they line up against those forecasts.

What to watch

Australian CPI at 01:30 UTC is the only high-impact event in the window; Lagarde at 11:00, Canadian GDP at 12:30, and the paired US confidence and JOLTS prints at 14:00 fill the medium-impact hours before it.