An RBA rate decision, back-to-back inflation prints from Australia and the US, and the September US jobs report headline a front-loaded week. Times below are UTC.
Tuesday, September 29 — RBA in focus
The Cash Rate decision lands at 04:30, with consensus at 4.60% against the current 4.35% — a 25bp step if delivered. It measures the RBA’s benchmark policy rate, the anchor for Australian borrowing costs.
The RBA Rate Statement publishes at the same time; its wording is what markets parse for the trajectory beyond this meeting.
Together they are the primary driver for AUD/USD and the Aussie crosses — EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD and AUD/JPY — and set the tone for Australian equity benchmarks. It is also the first of back-to-back AUD events, with inflation data following within a day.
Wednesday, September 30 — inflation, both sides
Australia’s CPI opens the session at 01:30 and measures consumer price growth. Headline CPI y/y is forecast at 4.1%, up from 3.5%, while the monthly figure is seen at 0.5% after 1.0%. The Trimmed Mean m/m — the RBA’s core gauge that strips out volatile items — is forecast at 0.3%, cooling from 0.5%.
Landing the morning after the decision, the inflation set is the key read for AUD and the Aussie crosses.
Focus shifts to the US at 12:30. Core PCE m/m, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is forecast at 0.3% versus 0.2% prior; it tracks price changes across consumer goods and services excluding food and energy. Final GDP q/q, the last revision to the previous quarter’s growth, prints alongside at 1.5%, unchanged from earlier readings.
Core PCE is the session’s dollar event, with knock-on reach into gold, Treasuries and the US equity indices.
Friday, October 2 — the payrolls test
The week’s marquee release, Non-Farm Employment Change, arrives at 12:30 and counts net jobs added outside farming. It is forecast at 98K against 162K previously — a marked cooling in hiring if the number lands.
The Unemployment Rate is seen holding at 4.1%, unchanged from the prior month. Average Hourly Earnings m/m, the wage-inflation component, is forecast at 0.3%, matching the previous 0.3%. The three prints share the 12:30 slot, the single most concentrated moment of the week for USD.
Payrolls is the highest-volatility release on the calendar for the dollar, and the reaction typically ripples through gold and US indices in the same window.
What to watch
Both Core PCE on Wednesday and payrolls on Friday hit at 12:30, so the dollar carries the week’s heaviest data load. The RBA opens proceedings on Tuesday and Australian CPI keeps AUD in play through midweek, with gold sitting in the crossfire of the PCE and payrolls reactions.
