The calendar is compressed but heavy. Two sessions carry the week: an ECB decision paired with US producer prices on Wednesday, then the headline US CPI print alongside UK growth data on Thursday.

Wednesday, September 10 β€” ECB and US PPI

The ECB Main Refinancing Rate lands at 12:15 UTC, with the forecast at 2.65% against a previous 2.40% β€” a 25bp step higher. The accompanying Monetary Policy Statement arrives simultaneously, and the ECB Press Conference follows at 12:45 UTC.

Rate decisions and the tone of the press conference are the primary drivers for EUR crosses, European indices, and euro-area bond proxies. The statement often carries as much weight as the rate itself.

At 12:30 UTC, US producer prices print in parallel. PPI m/m is seen at 0.4%, a sharp rebound from the flat 0.0% prior. Core PPI m/m is forecast at 0.3% versus 0.2% previously.

Producer prices feed the inflation narrative ahead of Thursday’s CPI, making the dollar and rate-sensitive assets responsive to any surprise. The overlap with the ECB window makes EUR/USD the focal pair for the session.

Thursday, September 11 β€” UK GDP and US CPI

The UK opens the day at 06:00 UTC with GDP m/m, forecast at 0.0% after a 0.3% expansion the prior month β€” a stall in monthly output. Growth data drives sterling and UK-linked equities.

The week’s marquee release is US CPI at 12:30 UTC. Headline CPI m/m is forecast at 0.4%, up from 0.1%, while CPI y/y is seen holding at 3.4%, matching the previous reading.

The core measures round out the picture: Core CPI m/m at 0.2%, unchanged from prior, and Core CPI y/y forecast at 2.4%, a touch below the previous 2.5%.

CPI is the single most-watched inflation gauge for the dollar, US indices, gold, and Treasury-sensitive instruments. The split between a firmer headline and a softer annual core sets up a nuanced reaction.

What to watch

The ECB press conference and the US CPI print are the two events with the widest reach across currencies, metals, and indices. With US PPI landing Wednesday and CPI Thursday, the inflation data stack is the recurring thread running through both sessions.