The next session is front-loaded, with the biggest US and Canadian data releases both scheduled for 12:30 UTC. After that the calendar quiets quickly.
12:30 UTC β United States (USD)
The Non-Farm Employment Change is the day’s marquee release. It measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding farm workers. Forecast is 85K, up from a prior 57K.
Released alongside it, the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 4.2%, unchanged from the previous reading.
Average Hourly Earnings m/m, a gauge of wage growth, is seen at 0.3%, matching the prior 0.3%. Together these three prints frame the US labour picture and are the primary driver for the dollar in this window.
12:30 UTC β Canada (CAD)
Canada reports at the same moment, setting up a direct data clash for USD/CAD. Employment Change measures the net change in employed people and is forecast at 17.8K, just below the previous 18.2K.
The Canadian Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 6.5%, unchanged from the prior month. With both countries reporting simultaneously, the loonie faces cross-currents from either side of the border.
14:00 UTC β Canada Ivey PMI (CAD)
Rounding out the session, the medium-impact Ivey PMI tracks the month-over-month change in a composite index of purchasing managers. Forecast is 55.4, easing from the prior 56.2. A reading above 50 signals expansion; the print offers a follow-up read on Canadian activity after the morning jobs data.
What to watch
The 12:30 UTC block is the clear focal point, with US payrolls and Canadian employment landing together β the dollar and the loonie are both in play in the same instant. The Ivey PMI at 14:00 UTC is the only notable follow-up on the docket.
