US inflation is the day’s marquee event. The full CPI suite lands at 12:30 UTC, and it is the only high-impact block on the calendar.
United States
Core CPI m/m (12:30 UTC, USD, high) is forecast at 0.2%, up from a flat 0.0% previously. The measure strips out food and energy to gauge the underlying monthly price trend.
Core CPI y/y is seen easing to 2.5% from 2.6%, the annualized read on the same core basket.
Headline CPI m/m is forecast at 0.1%, a swing higher from the prior -0.4% reading. This captures the full monthly change in consumer prices, including food and energy.
Headline CPI y/y is expected at 3.4%, just below the previous 3.5%. It is the broadest annual inflation gauge in the release.
All four prints arrive simultaneously and carry direct weight for the dollar. The forecasts point to a modest firming in monthly momentum alongside a slight cooling in the annual figures.
New Zealand
Inflation Expectations q/q (03:00 UTC on Aug 13, NZD, medium) is the following session’s lone scheduled item. There is no forecast; the previous reading stood at 2.53%. The survey tracks where businesses expect prices to sit over the coming quarters and feeds into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s outlook.
What to watch
The 12:30 UTC CPI cluster is the clear focal point for the dollar, with the New Zealand expectations survey the only other dated release in the next 24 hours.
