What to Watch: US Core PCE and Prelim GDP Headline the Session

The US calendar is front-loaded today, with three releases all hitting at 12:30 UTC. Two carry high impact and both bear directly on the dollar.

Core PCE Price Index m/m — 12:30 UTC (USD, high)

The Core PCE Price Index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, stripping out volatile food and energy prices to measure the month-on-month change in consumer costs.

Forecast stands at 0.2%, up from the prior 0.1% reading. It is the marquee event of the session for the dollar.

Prelim GDP q/q — 12:30 UTC (USD, high)

Landing at the same time, the Preliminary GDP figure is the second estimate of quarterly economic output and the broadest read on the health of the US economy.

Forecast is 1.5%, matching the previous 1.5% print. A steady annualised pace is the expectation here.

Prelim GDP Price Index q/q — 12:30 UTC (USD, medium)

Also released at 12:30 UTC, the GDP Price Index tracks price changes across all goods and services counted in GDP, offering a wider inflation snapshot than PCE alone.

Forecast holds at 6.2%, unchanged from the prior 6.2%. It carries medium impact and rounds out the trio.

What to watch

All three USD releases share the 12:30 UTC slot, concentrating the day’s event risk into a single window for the dollar.