US inflation is the centerpiece of the coming week, with the RBA opening proceedings and UK growth data rounding it out. Here is the day-by-day rundown of the high-impact releases, all times UTC.
Tuesday, August 11 β RBA
The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its Cash Rate at 04:30, with the rate seen held at 4.35%, unchanged from the previous 4.35%.
The decision lands alongside the RBA Monetary Policy Statement and Rate Statement at the same time, with Governor’s Press Conference following at 05:30. The tone and forward language across these releases is what typically moves AUD pairs and Australian index exposure more than the rate call itself when a hold is fully expected.
Wednesday, August 12 β US CPI
The week’s marquee release. US CPI prints at 12:30.
Headline CPI m/m is forecast at 0.1%, a sharp turn from the previous -0.4%. On a yearly basis, CPI y/y is seen at 3.4%, easing from 3.5%.
The core measures, which strip out food and energy, carry the most weight: Core CPI m/m is forecast at 0.2% against a flat 0.0% prior, while Core CPI y/y is seen slipping to 2.5% from 2.6%.
This is the broadest-reaching event of the week, driving the dollar, US indices, gold, and Treasury-sensitive assets across the board.
Thursday, August 13 β UK GDP & US PPI
The UK opens with GDP m/m at 06:00, forecast at -0.1% after the prior 0.1% β a swing to contraction that puts sterling in focus.
At 12:30, the US delivers the producer side of the inflation picture. PPI m/m is forecast at 0.2%, rebounding from -0.3%, while Core PPI m/m is seen at 0.3% versus 0.2% previously.
Coming a day after CPI, the PPI figures offer a read on pipeline price pressures and again put the dollar and rate-sensitive markets in play.
What to watch
The US docket dominates: Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI are back-to-back inflation checkpoints, and the core readings are the numbers with the widest reach across currencies, metals and indices. The RBA on Tuesday and UK GDP on Thursday frame the AUD and GBP crosses around them.
