Week Ahead: Central Banks and US Payrolls in Focus

Three central bank decisions and a US payrolls report headline the week. The dominant thread runs through rate-sensitive currencies, with the NZD, CAD and USD all facing high-impact catalysts.

Monday, September 1

ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD) — 14:00. The gauge of US factory activity is seen at 55.2, a touch below the prior 55.6. It sets the tone for a USD-heavy week and feeds into the broader read on demand ahead of Friday’s jobs data.

Tuesday, September 2

Australia GDP q/q (AUD) — 01:30. Growth is forecast at 0.3%, matching the previous quarter. The headline number is the main driver for AUD.

RBNZ Official Cash Rate (NZD) — 02:00. The rate is expected at 2.75%, a 25bp step up from 2.50%. The accompanying Monetary Policy Statement and Rate Statement land alongside it, with Governor’s press conference at 03:00. A live decision plus guidance makes this the day’s key event for NZD.

BOC Overnight Rate (CAD) — 13:45. The Bank of Canada is seen holding at 2.25%. The Rate Statement arrives with it and the press conference follows at 14:30. CAD is the currency in play, with more Canadian data due later in the week.

Thursday, September 4

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (GBP) — 08:50. Remarks from the Bank of England chief are the main scheduled risk for GBP this week.

Canada Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD) — 12:30. Employment is forecast at 15.8K, a sharp cool-down from the prior 75.1K, while the jobless rate is expected steady at 6.4%. It lands just two days after the BOC decision, keeping CAD in focus.

US Non-Farm Payrolls (USD) — 12:30. The week’s marquee release. Payrolls are seen at 58K, a swing back to positive after the prior -23K print. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m are seen at 0.3%, up from 0.1%. The combination of headline jobs, the rate and wage growth moves USD broadly, along with metals, indices and Treasuries.

What to watch

The CAD carries a double catalyst — Wednesday’s BOC decision and Thursday’s jobs report — while Friday’s US payrolls sit at the center of the week’s dollar risk. The NZD rate call is the standout on Tuesday given the expected 25bp hike.