The next 24 hours are front-loaded by the ECB and followed by a wall of flash PMI data across the euro area and UK. Here is the schedule in chronological order, times in UTC.
Euro Area
The headline event is the ECB Press Conference at 12:45 UTC today. It’s the highest-impact item on the calendar and the main driver for the euro, as markets parse the tone and any guidance from the central bank. No forecast applies to a press conference.
The euro then faces a run of flash PMIs on Wednesday. French Flash Manufacturing PMI at 07:15 UTC is seen at 51.0 versus 50.7 prior, with French Flash Services expected at 47.5 against 47.4 β still below the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction.
At 07:30 UTC, German figures follow. Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.4 from 50.0, nudging back toward growth, while Services PMI is seen rebounding to 49.0 from 46.8. Both remain closely watched gauges of activity in the bloc’s largest economy.
United Kingdom
Sterling’s first test comes at 06:00 UTC with Retail Sales m/m, forecast at -0.3% after a strong 1.2% prior reading. It measures the month-on-month change in consumer spending at the retail level.
UK flash PMIs land at 08:30 UTC. Manufacturing PMI is expected to ease to 52.0 from 53.1, holding in expansion territory. Services PMI is forecast at 49.4 from 48.7 β an improvement, but still just under the 50 threshold.
What to Watch
The ECB press conference is the session’s clear focal point for the euro, with the flash PMIs offering a fresh read on activity across the euro area and UK the following morning. The gap between forecast and previous is widest on UK retail sales, where the swing from +1.2% to -0.3% stands out.
