Canada’s monthly GDP is the highest-impact release on the docket, landing at 12:30 UTC. Everything else fills in around it, so here is the run of the next 24 hours in order.
Europe first (09:00 UTC)
The euro area kicks things off with July’s flash inflation estimates. Headline CPI y/y is seen at 2.9%, a touch above the prior 2.8%.
The core flash estimate, which strips out food and energy, is forecast to hold at 2.4%, matching the previous reading. Both are medium impact for the EUR and are the first cut at July price data.
The main event (12:30 UTC)
Canada’s GDP m/m is the session’s only high-impact print. It measures the monthly change in economic output, and the forecast is 0.2% versus a stronger 0.5% previously β a notable step down if it lands as expected. This is the key CAD release of the day.
At the same time, the US Employment Cost Index q/q arrives. It tracks the change in labour costs including wages and benefits, a gauge closely tied to inflation pressure. The forecast is 0.8%, down from 0.9%. Medium impact for the USD.
US sentiment to close (14:00 UTC)
The day rounds out with the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, expected at 53.9 against the prior 54.4 β a small downward nudge to the earlier estimate.
Alongside it comes the revised UoM Inflation Expectations figure. No forecast is published; the previous reading was 4.2%. Both are medium impact for the USD and offer a read on how households see prices and confidence heading into the summer.
What to watch
The Canada GDP print at 12:30 UTC is the clear focal point for the CAD, sharing the slot with the US employment cost data. The euro area CPI pair opens the session and the Michigan revisions close it out.
